”What’s the chance that, in 25 years, I and everyone I know will be wearing something that’s constantly feeding an enormous stream of physical data to some cloud-like server farm for constant analysis?” I asked him.
“99 percent,” he replied. “And the 1 percent is that the Earth gets hit by an asteroid before then.”
If we could halve all that [number of Americans killed in car accidents], it would be, in the first case, an enormous win for human welfare and in the second case, a huge change in the composition of medical expenditures, with far less trauma care but hundreds of thousands of people living long and expensive lives (which would be, I hasten to emphasize, a very good thing). But it’s not something any of our current models around future medical spending can pick up.
More about personal analytics and healthcare projections than autonomous cars, but autonomous cars present a disruption to trends.